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Road to Waco: Previewing the NCAA Championships

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Women's Tennis 3/5/2015 12:00:00 AM
March 5, 2015

Editor's Note: The following is a survey of the current college tennis landscape provided by former Waco Tribune-Herald sports editor, Kim Gorum. Baylor will host the NCAA Championships for the first time, May 14-25, 2015, at the Hurd Tennis Center. This bi-weekly series is meant to give the Central Texas community a look at what to expect when the nation's top teams come to Waco.

It may not have been the "Upset of the Century," or even the decade. Baylor coach Matt Knoll doesn't even think it qualifies as the "Upset of the Biennium" after unranked Denver landed a 4-3 haymaker on Florida's chin in the 2013 NCAA Tournament.

But when the No. 51 Tulsa Golden Hurricane flew into LAX last weekend and took down top-ranked and defending NCAA champion Southern Cal on their own courts, they left the college tennis community buzzing.

And unlike Denver's stunning first-round KO of the Gators, which was promptly forgotten by almost everyone except Florida fans, we're still talking about Tulsa-USC. Not just that it happened, but how it happened.

Let's face it, Florida was an underachieving 15th seed -- with a first-year coach -- that got caught looking ahead to a matchup with No. 18 California. And Southern Cal is arguably the best program in the country, with arguably the best coach. It's hard to counter Peter Smith's five NCAA championships in the last six seasons.

So how did this happen?

Well, it's said that our greatest wounds are self-inflicted. And that's certainly an element of our story. When trophy case maintenance is a line item in your budget, arrogance is an occupational hazard.

But this was a mismatch from the get-go. The Trojans, who took the court less than 24 hours after an emotional 6-1 beatdown of Pac-12 rival Stanford, blew Tulsa's doors off in doubles. That despite using a practice-day lineup that broke up the nation's second-ranked duo, Yannick Hanfmann and Roberto Quiroz.

When USC won the doubles point with two teams that had never played together crushing Tulsa's regulars, 6-1 at No. 2 and 6-0 at No. 3, Smith pulled the plug on his singles lineup as well. He removed his two most dependable points, Eric Johnson at No. 3 and Nick Crystal at No. 6, moved Jonny Wang and Max de Vroom up, and brought talented but inexperienced sophomores Rob Bellamy and Connor Farren off the bench at 5 and 6.

Now, this kind of shuffling happens all the time in college tennis, usually against teams without the firepower to beat you at four spots in singles. And with the level of player that Smith recruits, you'd think he has more talent at the end of his bench than Tulsa has at the top of its lineup, right?

Well, yes. And no.

Here's the thing about college tennis: talent is not a trump card. Talent can itself be trumped, by any number of factors: pressure, inexperience, fatigue, discomfort, loss of confidence. And often by an opponent's toughness. Physical and mental toughness, which some people will tell you is itself a talent.

And when it comes to physical and mental toughness, coach Vince Westbrook's program takes a backseat to no one.

He preaches it, and for 24 years at Tulsa his teams have embodied it. It's a big part of why Baylor and several other Big 12 programs have regularly scheduled the Golden Hurricane. They know they'll be tested by a tough, well-coached team that generally plays at a higher level than its talent would indicate.

Just to be clear: Tulsa may have been ranked 51st, but there are not 50 better college tennis teams than the Golden Hurricane. And there may not be 25 better programs.

"Anyone who doesn't take a Vince Westbrook team seriously does so at their peril," said one longtime local tennis official who's chaired matches throughout the country. "It'll bite you."

And just as the baseball always seems to find the rightfielder in Little League games, the match came down to USC's callow sophomores against Tulsa's junkyard dogs at 5 and 6.

But we're getting ahead of ourselves. Smith's decision to sub out never would have been an issue had the Trojans taken care of business at the top of the lineup, where they still had the sixth-ranked Hanfmann facing TU's Or Ram-Harel at 1 and No. 20 Quiroz up against Alejandro Espejo at 2.

No one was surprised when Hanfmann was the first man off the court.

Everyone was shocked that he came off with a 6-3, 6-2 loss.

"If Yannick Hanfmann and Or Ram-Harel play 100 times," said one Big 12 coach, "Hanfmann wins 100."

By the time Espejo had taken down Quiroz in straight sets at 2, belief was soaring in the Tulsa camp, just as doubt must have been in USC's. Junior Dylan McCloskey came from a set down to give Tulsa a 3-2 lead with a 3-6, 6-4, 7-6 (6) win at 6 over Farren, who fought off four match points in the tiebreaker after falling behind 6-2.

That left it to junior Carlos Bautista, locked in a three-set tug-of-war with de Vroom on 4, and Australian freshman Mitchell Pritchard, going to a third-set tiebreaker against Bellamy.

All three Tulsa players had won the second set after dropping the first, but it was Pritchard who got the clincher, 4-6, 7-5, 7-6 (5).

It was the first time either Farren or Bellamy had ever been in a must-win position on the court.

Defending national champs, playing at home, outmatched opponent, friends watching, momentum fading, teammates faltering, muscles cramping, it wasn't supposed to be this hard, pressure mounting, every point critical, teammates urging, fatigue setting in, every error magnified, how is this happening?

That's some hard-won experience.

"This was by far the biggest win in our program's history," Westbrook said afterward. "A lot of things fell into place for us. We knew we were going to be a better outdoor team and that showed today. Winning at their place is a big deal and the guys did a great job of holding on for the win in such a hostile environment."

He didn't thank Peter Smith. But he could have.

How about a group hug?
The win over Southern Cal boosted Tulsa from 51 to 26 in the latest ITA computer rankings, but the Golden Hurricane wasn't the only benificiary. The Big 12 got a huge ratings boost, which will be magnified 5x as the season progresses.

Because Tulsa plays five of the league's six teams this season, each has a chance to benefit from the win. The Golden Hurricane has already lost to Texas (4-3), Baylor (4-1) and TCU (4-0) at home, and to Oklahoma State (4-3) in Stillwater. Still to come are an April 1 road trip to No. 1 Oklahoma, as well as a possible rematch with Baylor (and perhaps USC, for that matter) in this month's Oracle Collegiate Challenge in Indian Wells, Calif.

And those teams' rankings will benefit even more when they play each other ... sort of a ratings multiplier effect.

Congratulations all around.

Flagships stuck in ratings shoals
Who've have believed that as March arrived, the Texas women would be ranked outside the Top 50 for the first time in memory, and Texas A&M wouldn't be ranked at all? As Vizzini said (repeatedly), "Inconceivable!"

Texas is struggling through a coaching transition from Patty Fendick-McCain, who retired last summer, to Danielle Lund McNamara, formerly head coach at Yale and a collegiate standout at Michigan. McNamara inherited a short roster, a problem compounded by a very aggressive non-conference schedule (4 opponents in the Top 16) and now a slew of injuries.

The Longhorns (2-5) had only four players available against Michigan and five against Northwestern this weekend, both 6-1 road losses. And All-Big 12 junior Breaunna Addison, the Horns' only ranked singles player at No. 47, has been out of the lineup since January.

A&M, on the other hand, has plenty of players and talent. The Aggies (3-3) just haven't beaten anyone. They played top-ranked North Carolina tough in a 4-3 loss in Houston last month, but their three wins have come against North Texas, UT-Arlington and Tennessee -- all unranked teams.

The ITA rankings are currently based upon a program's best five wins against ranked opponents, so both teams are in catchup mode. Texas, in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament for the first time ever, is ranked ahead of only five of its 12 remaining opponents: Yale, Iowa State, West Virginia, Kansas and Kansas State. A&M, which reached the NCAA title match just two years ago, has more ground to cover, but enough juice and opportunities to get there. The Aggies get two big chances to impress the ITA computer this weekend with home matches against No. 26 South Carolina and No. 2 Florida. Time's a-wastin' ...

If the NCAAs began today ...
Here's how the men's and women's draws would be seeded:

MEN: 1. Oklahoma, 2. Duke, 3. Illinois, 4. Georgia, 5. Baylor, 6. Southern Cal, 7. Texas, 8. Ohio State, 9. Mississippi, 10. Texas A&M, 11. Florida, 12. Virginia, 13. TCU, 14. Vanderbilt, 15, Columbia, 16. UCLA.
This scenario could produce an NCAA Round of 16 three-match between Baylor and Virginia. The Bears won the first meeting in the ITA Indoor, 4-3, and Sunday's rematch in Waco, 5-2, becoming the first team to beat Virginia indoors twice in the same season during the Brian Boland era.

WOMEN: 1. North Carolina, 2. Florida, 3. Southern Cal, 4. Baylor, 5. Virginia, 6. Georgia, 7. California, 8. Oklahoma State, 9. Alabama, 10 Stanford, 11. Michigan, 12. UCLA, 13. Vanderbilt, 14. Miami, 15. Clemson, 16. Pepperdine.
Baylor could get another crack at Vandy in this scenario, after the Commodores beat the Bears 4-3 on Feb. 22 in Nashville.

Trivial matters
Who were the first Big 12 tennis players to be the top seeds in the men's and women's singles draws at the NCAA Championships? (See answer at end of column).

Who's hot
-- Julian Lenz, Baylor: The junior from Frankfurt, Germany, became the first player in BU history to beat a pair of Top 2 players back-to-back when he outslugged second-ranked Ryan Shane, 6-4, 7-5, during the Bears 5-2 win Sunday over Virginia. A week earlier, Lenz had clinched a 4-0 win over UCLA by stopping No. 2 Mackenzie McDonald, 6-4, 6-2, on the same court at Baylor's Hawkins Indoor Tennis Center.

Lenz, No. 11th on the ITA computer, is now 7-1 in dual-match play and 17-4 overall this season, with a 10-3 mark against ranked opponents.

"Julian's a very experienced guy. He's been in that situation a lot," coach Matt Knoll said after Lenz twice broke Shane only to be broken back, then broke again and served out the victory. "We know he's going to be resilient guy and handle whatever comes his way, and he did that again today. That's what we expect from him."

The only other BU player to beat Top 5 opponents back-to-back was Benedikt Dorsch, who stopped No. 3 Jesse Witten of Kentucky and No. 2 Ryler DeHeart of Illinois in succession in February 2005. But Dorsch one-upped Lenz in one respect: he needed only three sets to win the two matches. Witten was so frustrated after Dorsch carved him up in the first set that he imploded during the break, got himself coded, and defaulted the match before the second set could begin. Still one of the most incredible scenes in Hurd Tennis Center history for everyone who witnessed it.

-- Lauren Herring, Georgia: The senior from Greenville, N.C., got blown off the court by Baylor's Ema Burgic in the Bulldogs' season-opening loss in January, but has been unbeatable ever since.

Facing an all-star cast of singles opponents, the two-time all-American and reigning SEC Player of the Year has posted an 8-1 mark in dual matches and is 14-4 overall. She has straight-sets wins over No. 1 Julie Elbaba of Virginia, No. 18 Emina Bektas of Michigan and four other Top 70 players and had a third-set lead on UCLA's No. 2 Robin Anderson when the match was suspended after the Bulldogs clinched at the ITA Indoor.

After she and partner Ellen Perez dropped a 6-1 decision to Burgic and Blair Shankle in the opener, they're 6-2 in doubles, with a win over a Top 10 team and leads against two others in matches that were suspended.

Now starting for a fourth straight season, Herring is ranked sixth in singles after finishing her first three years at 70, 48 and 7 on the ITA computer.

Looking ahead
Big matches on campus, March 4-17

Friday, March 6
-- #1 Oklahoma men at #8 Ohio State: Sooners take dead aim at Buckeyes' 200-match home winning streak.
-- #10 Texas A&M men at #4 Georgia: Aggies' balanced lineup is threat to Bulldogs, but how will underclassmen handle first trip to Athens?
-- #6 Georgia women at #9 Alabama: On paper, it looks like Bulldogs should roll Tide. But Tuscaloosa is no walk in the park.

Saturday, March 7
-- #12 UCLA women at #4 Baylor: After tumbling from No. 1 last month, defending NCAA champs look to climb back this week with matches against #6 USC and #4 Bears.

Sunday, March 8
-- #2 Florida women at Texas A&M: Gators weren't impressive in their first venture out of state (ITA Indoors), and unranked Aggies are desperate for a splash win.

Tuesday, March 10
-- #5 Baylor men at #9 Mississippi: TCU and Ole Miss may be nation's biggest surprises. Bears get both in 8-day span.
-- #12 Virginia men at #1 Oklahoma: If the Hoos show up healthy, this could be an instant classic.

Friday, March 13
-- #4 Baylor women at #8 Oklahoma State: Biggest threat to Bears' Big 12 supremacy looking to spring trap in Stillwater.
-- #16 UCLA men at #6 USC: Bruins back on track with Ws vs. Stanford and Tulsa, but need Top 10 win if they're going to make stretch run.
-- #1 North Carolina women at #25 Notre Dame: Heels shouldn't have a problem ... but Irish have a knack for surprises.

Saturday, March 14
-- #3 Illinois men at #7 Texas: Brad Dancer's team is playing nation's most aggressive non-conference schedule -- Baylor, Notre Dame, Texas, A&M and TCU on road, plus Duke, UNC and Kentucky at home.
-- #7 California women at #16 Pepperdine: Big match for Cal, just ahead of its UCLA/USC road trip, and big opportunity for Pepperdine.

Sunday, March 15
-- #8 Ohio State men at #26 Tulsa: Suddenly, this one takes on a lot more significance.
-- #13 Vanderbilt women at #6 Georgia: Wins over Baylor, Ole Miss established Vandy as an SEC title threat, but Athens may be a bridge too far for Commodores.

Monday, March 16
-- #3 Illinois men at #13 TCU: If Illini sweep the Horns and Frogs, do they win the Big 12?

Tuesday, March 17
-- #8 Ohio State men at #7 Texas: Longhorns get a chance to avenge their only loss, a 4-3 setback in the ITA Indoors that came down to a 7-5 third set. A resume-builder for the Horns, whose 11 wins are all against teams outside the Top 14.
-- #30 Texas Tech men at #23 Notre Dame: The ITA computer awards teams with a 10 percent points bonus for road wins. But playing the Irish in South Bend on St. Patrick's Day? That should be worth 25.

Surveying the field A preview of some of the top contenders for the NCAA Championships in Waco beginning May 14

UCLA women -- Record: 8-2
-- Ranking: No. 12 on ITA computer (March 3)
-- How their resume shapes up: UCLA tumbled from No. 4 to No. 11 last week when the ITA rankings switched over from polling to the computer program. It wasn't because they lost (though they did, 4-3, to No. 8 California), but because the computer devalued their two best wins at the time, over Kentucky and Miami in the ITA Women's Team Indoor.

With the Wildcats and Hurricanes back in the Top 20, the Bruins will be getting a ratings boost not only from those victories but their wins over fast-rising TCU and Pepperdine. And matches this week against No. 4 Southern Cal and No. 6 Baylor give them an opportunity to climb back into the neighborhood of their pre-Indoor ranking: No. 1.

UCLA also has opportunities for Top 10 matchups against Cal, Stanford and USC over the next 6 weeks, not to mention the Pac-12 Tournament. Barring injury, a top-8 NCAA seed is more likely than not.

-- Top players: Robin Anderson (Sr, Matawan, N.J.) is No. 3 in the ITA singles rankings with a 3-1 mark in duals and 8-1 overall. No. 7 Chanelle Van Nguyen (Sr, Miami, Fla.) is 5-2 in duals, 10-4 overall, while No. 28 Kyle McPhillips (Jr, Willoughby, Ohio) and No. 72 Catherine Harrison (Jr, Germantown, Tenn.) have been the Bruins' strongest points at 3 and 4 singles. McPhillips (8-1 duals, 18-5 overall) and Harrison (4-0, 8-5) are also ranked No. 2 nationally in doubles with a 7-0 dual-match record and 15-2 overall. No. 91 Kaitlin Ray (Sr, Little Rock, Ark.) and Terri Fleming (Fr, Atlanta) anchor the bottom of the lineup..).

-- NCAA Tournament history: 80-31 record in 34 appearances. UCLA has made the tournament every year since the NCAA sanctioned women's tennis in 1982, winning titles in 2008 and 2014.

-- Record against Baylor: 4-5, most recently a 4-1 win in Los Angeles on March 10, 2014.

Georgia men
-- Record: 9-2
-- Ranking: No. 5 on ITA computer (March 3)
-- How their resume shapes up: The SEC has rebounded a bit from its slow start, but the Bulldogs probably have less room for error this season than they typically do in pursuit of a premium NCAA seed. With only four other conference teams currently in the ITA Top 25 and six in the Top 40, their opportunities for premium wins are more limited than for the Big 12, ACC and Pac-12 teams they'll be jockeying with down the stretch. While the Bulldogs tread ratings water against the likes of Tennessee, Arkansas and Alabama, for instance, Baylor will have a chance to make nonconference hay against Ole Miss, California and/or USC.

That said, Georgia is off to a strong start in conference play. The Bulldogs went to Gainesville last Thursday and beat No. 17 Florida in their SEC opener (and first outdoor match), 4-1, then smashed No. 28 Auburn on the road, 4-0. Their only remaining matchups against current Top 40 teams (Texas A&M, LSU, Vanderbilt and Ole Miss) will all be played in Athens. Plus, those early-season wins over Illinois and UCLA will be evergreen.

-- Top players: No. 16 Nathan Pascha (Sr, Atlanta) is 6-2 in dual matches (18-8 overall) and combines with No. 17 Wayne Montgomery (Fr, Somerset West, South Africa) and No. 25 Austin Smith (Jr, Cumming, Ga.) to give the Bulldogs a formidable 1-2-3 punch. Only one other team, top-ranked Oklahoma, has three players in the Top 25, and the Georgia trio is a combined 18-7 in dual matches and 58-20 overall.

The issues start at No. 4, where the Dogs have lost almost as many matches (5) as at 1, 2 and 3 combined. And they're only marginally better at 5 and 6 so far. Beyond that, Georgia has been surprisingly vulnerable in doubles, dropping three doubles points and squeaking by in several others while compiling a 17-11 composite mark.

But Baylor coach Matt Knoll has seen this movie before and knows how it ends. "Manny (Diaz) is a master coach," he said after the Bulldogs' 4-1 loss to USC in the Indoor semifinals. "They're really good and Manny's really good. They'll be better by the end, and they'll be in the mix."

-- NCAA Tournament history: Georgia has made 36 of the 38 NCAA Tournaments since the dual-match format was introduced in 1977, and its 6 NCAA men's titles rank behind only Southern Cal (21), Stanford (17) and UCLA (16). The Bulldogs are 107-30 in the tournament overall, with 21 semifinal appearances and 13 runner-up finishes.

-- Record against Baylor: 3-1. The Bears' only W was a 4-0 victory in the ITA Indoor opener in 2003. The Bulldogs pulled out 4-3 wins in the NCAA quarterfinals (1999) and semifinals (2006), and laid a 7-0 haymaker on BU in the 2007 regular season in Athens en route to the NCAA title that year.

Previously previewed: North Carolina women and UCLA men (Feb. 17), UCLA women and Georgia men (March 4)

Trivia answer
Oklahoma State's Pavel Kudrnac was the first Big 12 player to earn the top seed in men's singles at the NCAA Tournament, in 1998. He was knocked out in the quarterfinals by VCU's Daniel Andersson.

No Big 12 women's player has ever been seeded No. 1 in the NCAAs, but two came close. Texas' Janet Walker was the No. 2 seed in the league's first season, 1997, but was beaten in the first round. And Oklahoma's Anda Perianu was No. 2 in 2004, when she advanced to the round of 16 before losing to Clemson's Julie Coin.

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Players Mentioned

Julian Lenz

Julian Lenz

6' 2"
Freshman
Blair Shankle

Blair Shankle

5' 8"
Freshman
Ema Burgic

Ema Burgic

5' 10"
Sophomore

Players Mentioned

Julian Lenz

Julian Lenz

6' 2"
Freshman
Blair Shankle

Blair Shankle

5' 8"
Freshman
Ema Burgic

Ema Burgic

5' 10"
Sophomore